New Zealand’s right-wing coalition, led by the National Party, hopes to cling to power based on Saturday’s general election. But the form of the next government will not be known until November 27.
Here’s why the outcome remains uncertain and why nearly 400,000 special votes not yet counted could influence the outcome.
So who won?
He is currently too close to follow. Neither National Party leader Christopher Luxon nor Labor’s Chris Hipkins claimed victory on Saturday night. While preliminary results show Labor just ahead in the popular vote – 29.3% to National’s 29.2% – National won more seats in Parliament, 42 seats to Labor’s 36, thanks to the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system.
It appears that 66 seats will be needed to achieve a majority, and it is not yet clear whether this can be cobbled together by the left or right bloc. We know seven parties will be in Parliament: likely Labor, Greens and Te Pāti Māori on the left bloc, and National, NZ First and Act on the right.
Depending on what happens next, newcomer Opportunity, which has positioned itself as a centrist, could hold the balance of power.
Why don’t we have a clear result yet?
It is not common for the two main parties to both achieve such low numbers on the same night. Given the current results, the right-wing bloc could form a government, but not all the votes have yet been counted.
The Opportunity party – which according to its current results won seven seats in parliament with 6% of the vote, crossing the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament for the first time – could play an important role.
Luxon previously said he wouldn’t talk to Opportunity and its leader Qiulae Wong, but he might not have a choice.
Negotiations cannot begin until November 27, once all special votes have been counted.
What are special votes and what makes them so important?
Special votes are those cast by people living abroad or who voted outside of their geographic electorate that day. This year, special votes totaled just under 400,000, according to the election commission.
The results of special votes are generally skewed to the left. In 2023, Te Pāti Māori won two more seats than the election night results suggested and the Greens won one. National lost two seats. This election is so close that one or two flipped seats could tip the balance of power between the coalitions.
Why is everyone talking about a “surplus” after these elections?
The New Zealand Parliament generally has 120 seats. Voters get two votes: for their preferred party and for the individual candidate in their electorate. There are 71 electoral seats and 49 list seats. List seats are distributed among parties according to the proportion of votes they obtain.
The party’s vote share should generally reflect the number of seats that party obtains in Parliament. It’s a bit complicated, but if a party wins more seats than votes, Parliament has to expand to make room. This is called overhang.
On Saturday, National and Te Pāti Māori gained more share of the electorate than their party’s vote, meaning Parliament could have 10 or 11 more seats.
Should an overhang occur under the MMP?
Not specifically, no, but he can accommodate it. Since MMP was introduced in 1996, there have been five overhangs, but this will be the largest parliament in New Zealand’s history.
This is also the first election where political groups loudly ask voters to give them only their electorate vote, in order to create a surplus. Te Pāti Māori are on course to win five of seven seats in Māori electorates through this strategy, while various right-wing groups have asked their supporters to vote for current coalition partners Act or NZ First while supporting MPs in the National electorate. National, which will have five or six excess seats, has warned against this, apparently to no avail.
Critics say this strategic voting undermines the spirit of the mixed-member system, which New Zealanders voted for in the 1990s after a series of skewed results under the first-past-the-post system. Since 2012, two reports have proposed eliminating the surplus, but governments at the time chose to ignore them.
When will we know who the next government will be?
The final result could be known until December – just in time for Christmas.
Gn world
