At least three tankers carrying Russian diesel to the United States have changed course, casting doubt on the October deal between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
Nearly a month after Trump agreed to let Russia distribute its diesel stockpiles to the United States and global markets, despite existing sanctions, diesel has gone to zero in the United States, where prices have nearly doubled since the start of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran.
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Russia has sent a total of four tankers loaded with diesel since the deal was struck.
Here’s what we know.
What happened to the tankers carrying Russian diesel to the United States?
The Russian tanker Talisman and the Sierra Leone-flagged Leruo left the Baltic port of Primorsk last month, with the US east coast as their declared destination.
However, on Thursday, one was heading to Brazil and the other to the Mediterranean, according to marine analytics company Kpler and ship tracking site MarineTraffic.
A third tanker, still in the North Atlantic, changed its destination from New York to “for orders,” leaving its unloading point open.
The Financial Times also reported that Beast, a sanctioned Seychellois tanker that was loaded in the Russian port of Primorsk in late October, has headed to the United States and is currently reporting “Atlantic.”
What did Trump and Putin agree on?
Lots of numbers, but few details.
Trump first announced the deal following a call with Putin on October 9. He said Russia would immediately make more than 300,000 tons of diesel available to U.S. and global markets.
Long-range tankers, which carry diesel, can transport up to around 100,000 tonnes of diesel at a time.
Another 500,000 tons would follow in November, then 1 million tons “immediately thereafter,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
The deal negotiated by Trump with Putin allows the sale, delivery, unloading and import of Russian diesel until April 7. It was concluded after Trump accused Ukraine of causing diesel shortages by targeting Russian energy facilities amid the Russo-Ukrainian war.
It also reversed years of US policy after Washington banned Russian energy imports following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has since issued a temporary waiver of sanctions, much to the chagrin of a cross-party group of US Congressional lawmakers who passed a new sanctions package on behalf of the late pro-Ukraine Senator Lindsey Graham in September.
In a statement to the AP news agency, the Treasury said the exemption was “in compliance with all applicable laws”.
Russia announced its first delivery of diesel during an October visit to St. Petersburg by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff.
Still, much about the deal remains unclear.
Neither the White House nor the Kremlin said whether the agreement was in writing, the price to be paid for the diesel, the payment terms or the companies involved.
How much Russian diesel is now waiting to be sold?
It’s not clear exactly, but it’s less than what was promised.
The volumes involved have not been made public, but analysts say the first delivery is unlikely to bring significant relief to American consumers.
In the United States, retail diesel prices exceeded $6 per gallon ($1.59 per liter) in September – nearly double their pre-war levels – and remained high.
“The reported shipment is equivalent to about two hours of distillate consumption in the United States,” Aarathi Krishnan, CEO of Raksha Intelligence, told Al Jazeera, referring to the first tanker shipped from Russia.
“Even if it happens as planned, it will make very little difference to national supplies,” he said.
Why don’t traders want to buy Russian diesel?
Due to legal risk.
Although the U.S. Treasury has temporarily authorized sales of Russian diesel that would normally be subject to sanctions, Congress’s ban on Russian energy imports remains in effect, leaving a high level of uncertainty for traders.
New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill wrote to his state’s port and terminal operators Monday asking them to turn away ships carrying fuel.
She warned that “any attempt to profit from the illegal trade in Russian fuel will be met with heavy sanctions.”
Sherrill argued that the Trump administration had no authority to overturn the ban.
Lawmakers also warned banks, port authorities and fuel distributors that handling imports could expose them to civil or criminal prosecution, as well as future congressional investigations.
The Trump administration says the exemption is legal and no court has ruled on the dispute.
“Clearly there is some hesitation about bringing these barrels to earth simply because of the implications that it brings,” Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, told AP.
Where will diesel go now?
Probably not in the United States, experts say.
The first two hijacked tankers are heading to Brazil and the Mediterranean, according to Kpler data, and the third could follow.
“Due to regulatory issues (and) sanctions, we may not see this cargo land on the Atlantic coast of the United States,” Smith told AP.
Moscow insists, however, that the agreement is on track.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “all diesel will find its buyers.”
Putin’s special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, went further, writing on X that the reports were “false” and that “tankers destined for the United States continue on their way.”
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