- “I don’t necessarily want to be the bearer of bad news, but I don’t think the turnout is as strong as we would like,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis worried last week.
- The Republican Party’s biggest concern is U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds’ campaign for governor, even though most polls show him narrowly leading Democrat David Jolly.
- Donalds raised $176 million; Jolly only $28 million.
Zoom: GOP nervousness is rooted in early turnout data.
- Republicans led Democrats in early voting by 3 percentage points Sunday morning. This is much less than in the last two general elections – and this despite a much greater registration advantage for the Republicans over the Democrats: 11 points.
- Republican turnout is lowest in parts of the conservative Panhandle and rural North Florida, including many of the 17 counties that Donald lost in the Republican primary.
- In those 17 counties, GOP turnout is 3.2 points lower than in 2022, compared to 1.1 points lower in counties won by Donalds, University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald found.
Between the lines: Republican turnout is made up of more habitual voters, while Democrats and independents collect ballots from people who don’t always show up. This could benefit Jolly if polls underestimate these voters.
- Democrats have already exceeded their 2022 early and absentee vote totals in 15 counties, compared to four counties for Republicans.
- Nearly all polls show independent voters favoring Democrats by double digits, so Republicans need a strong turnout advantage.
About two-thirds of Florida voters typically vote before Election Day, making early and absentee margins crucial.
- Among voters who waited until Election Day in 2022, about 60,000 more Republicans than Democrats have already cast ballots this year, Democratic strategist Steve Schale found.
- That means some voters Republicans are counting on for their Election Day surge in 2022 have already cast ballots, which could reduce their usual Tuesday advantage.
The big picture: The Donalds could enter Election Day with as many as 500,000 fewer votes, according to internal Democratic and Republican Party estimates shared with Axios.
- To close this deficit, the Donalds may have to win the Election Day vote by a ratio of 2:1. That’s a tall order, but Republicans have had huge Election Day margins before, including in 2022.
In figures: Black and Hispanic voters, who lean more Democratic this year in Florida polls, make up a growing share of the early electorate, accounting for a larger share of new ballots cast.
- Across racial and ethnic groupsDemocrats vote at higher rates than Republicans. Among active Democrats, 50% of white voters, 39% of black voters and 34% of Hispanic voters voted, compared to 35%, 21% and 28% of Republicans in those groups.
- Young voters show another substantial gap: 25% of active registered Democrats under 30 voted, compared to just 9% of Republicans.
Yes, but: Florida Republicans still outnumber Democrats by 1.5 million, with a larger number of reliable voters.
- The Florida GOP is better funded and organized than the state’s Democratic Party.
- Even in 2018, when a blue wave flooded the country, Florida’s red wall held firm. By razor-thin margins, DeSantis won the race for governor, and then governor. Rick Scott was elected to the Senate.
- “We always win on Election Day, and we know how to do it,” Republican Party Chairman Evan Power said. “A lot of the stress here comes from the fact that the last time we had a close election was eight years ago, and people have forgotten what a close election looks like here.”
Zoom out: Republicans face a different political climate than in 2018, when Trump was ascendant in the Republican Party and the economy was improving. Today, Trump’s approval among Republicans is lower and gas prices are higher.
- Republicans fear losing 10 to 15 seats in the House of Representatives, thereby jeopardizing their large majority.
- In Miami’s 27th Congressional District, voting trends are warning signs for Republican Maria Elvira Salazar in her race against Democrat Eliot Rodriguez.
- As for Florida’s three state cabinet posts (attorney general, chief financial officer, agriculture commissioner), “no one should feel safe, but there are reasons to feel good,” said a Republican involved in one of the elections.
All over the countrythe mood is so bad for the GOP that Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio and even South Carolina appear in play.
Behind the scenes: Early voting data sent chills through the Republican ranks in Tallahassee last week: what if polling assumptions about higher Republican turnout were wrong?
- “Just a few weeks ago, I didn’t think I would feel this way,” said a top consultant to one of the statewide races. “It’s not panic. At least, not yet.”
- Republicans remain more confident about Sen. Ashley Moody’s race against state Rep. Angie Nixon, who is widely seen as too progressive for red-state voters.
Point of friction: Republicans quietly fear that racism could harm Donald just as it could harm Nixon. Donald and Nixon are black.
- “We are about to conduct the biggest experiment to see how racist some of our voters are,” said a longtime Republican consultant, calling the counties Donald lost “more culturally Confederate” than the rest of Florida.
- “During the primary he underperformed in the Panhandle and if people think skin color didn’t play a role in that, they’re naive,” MAGA influencer Laura Loomer posted on X on Saturday.
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