Would Anthony Volpe’s fly ball have been a home run? Here’s what MLB and Statcast have to say

The New York Yankees’ season ended in embarrassment Wednesday night, getting swept on their home field by their AL East rival, the Tampa Bay Rays, in the American League Division Series.

The Bombers lost 4-3 to the Rays, but one might think that the game should have been tied at four after Anthony Volpe’s ball was disrupted by the fans in the sixth inning.

With George Lombard on first and two outs, the Yankees infielder hit a ball to left field that continued toward the outfield wall. The ball went into the seats and the umpires initially called it a game-tying home run, but upon review of the replay it was turned into an RBI double instead after an angle clearly showed a fan hitting the wall (he was eventually thrown out of the stadium). Spencer Jones struck out to end the threat and the Yankees didn’t score again.

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Victor Mesa Jr. of the Tampa Bay Rays reaches for a ball as fans cheer at Yankee Stadium.

Victor Mesa Jr. of the Tampa Bay Rays is unable to catch as fans intervene on a ball hit by Anthony Volpe of the New York Yankees during the sixth inning of Game 3 of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York on October 7, 2026. (Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images)

“After observing all relevant angles, the replay official conclusively determined that the spectator interfered with the ball above the playing field. The ball would not have left the playing field and would not have been caught,” the MLB Replay Center said in a statement shortly after the event, via the New York Post.

However, MLB’s Statcast initially said otherwise.

Volpe hit his ball 357 feet with an exit velocity of 97.9 mph and a launch angle of 42 degrees. In normal cases, this is an easy flyout, as he had an expected batting average of 0.060). However, Statcast initially said the ball’s trajectory would have led to a home run in 13 stadiums, including Yankee Stadium.

But since Thursday morning, Yankee Stadium is no longer one of the stadiums where the flight of the ball would have been a home run.

Anthony Volpe of the New York Yankees looks on during game three of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium.

Anthony Volpe of the New York Yankees attends Game 3 of the American League Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium, Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026, in New York. (MLB photos via Getty Images)

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Sportsball, perhaps ironically, released a video on

Yankees manager Aaron Boone said the umpires “did a good job” on their call.

“When he hit it, in my eyes, I was a little concerned right away because it felt like something, I wasn’t sure. And then seeing the replay and seeing it play out, I thought they did the right thing. I thought they did it right,” Boone said.

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“I just saw it through the replay and hoped for the best. But it’s crazy,” Volpe added.

So the replay shows it most likely would have been short, Statcast apparently changed its mind, and Major League Baseball says it definitely would have been short.

Victor Mesa Jr. of the Tampa Bay Rays reacts at Yankee Stadium during Game 3 of the American League Division Series.

Victor Mesa Jr. of the Tampa Bay Rays reacts after Anthony Volpe’s home run was called a double following fan interference during the sixth inning of Game 3 of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium, Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026, in New York. (MLB photos via Getty Images)

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Either way, it’s safe to say that no one knows for sure whether Volpe’s ball would have gone missing, and that a Yankees fan may or may not have robbed his own favorite team of a chance to return to the postseason.

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