For the second straight season, the New York Yankees exited the ALDS playoffs and for the 17th straight season, they failed to win the World Series. The Yankees were swept in Division Series by the AL East rival Tampa Bay Rays to extend their World Series drought to 17 years, tied for the longest in franchise history. Another long offseason is upon them.
Like all other teams after their season ends, the Yankees will hold a press conference in the coming days to debrief and talk about the upcoming offseason. General manager Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone will answer questions during this press conference and their future will be an important topic. They always are, they’re the Yankees, but this offseason more than most.
These are not George Steinbrenner’s Yankees. These are Hal Steinbrenner’s Yankees and Hal is much more patient and pragmatic than his father. He doesn’t hire and fire coaches willy-nilly, he won’t go on the radio to call out his players, none of that. It’s for the best, honestly. George did more harm than good before Derek Jeter & Co. came along in the late 1990s.
What’s next for the Yankees? After an ugly playoff sweep, Aaron Boone and Aaron Judge face the biggest questions
Mike Axisa
That said, stability turns to stagnation at some point, and the Yankees are quickly approaching it, if they’re not there already. Their seasons tend to go the same way: They win a lot early, fade in the summer months, rally late in the season, struggle against a lesser team in the playoffs, then get knocked out by a superior opponent, often with stupid mistakes involved.
When it happens once, well, that’s baseball, Suzyn. When this happens every year — seriously, it’s an annual event — it’s indicative of a larger organizational problem, and Boone and Cashman are the public faces of the organization. Is either one at risk of being replaced this offseason? Let’s talk about it.
Aaron Boone
Contract status: Signed until 2027
Manager since: 2018
Warm seat: 🔥🔥🔥
Maybe you can… maybe — tell me about Boone’s seat being a 🔥🔥🔥🔥, but it’s definitely not a 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥. Boone has the right people supporting him, namely Cashman and Steinbrenner, and his players love him. That includes captain Aaron Judge, who hasn’t been shy about pushing for certain moves. We have no reason to think Boone lost the clubhouse.
At the same time, consistently sloppy play and inability to beat top-ranked teams in the playoffs reflect poorly on Boone. That last bit isn’t an exaggeration either. In Boone’s nine seasons, the Yankees are 7-0 in the postseason against teams with a worse regular season record, and 1-8 against teams with a better regular season record. This is a rough overview.
“Those conversations and all that are for another day,” Boone said after the team’s elimination when asked about his professional status.
Nine years is a very long time for a manager. That’s a long time for a manager who led his team to the World Series. Managers have a shelf life. The messages are becoming stale and a new voice is needed, and after nine seasons, it’s not unreasonable to think the Yankees are there with Boone. Not when the same scenario plays out year after year without success.
If the Yankees fire Boone, it will be the first time they have fired a manager mid-contract since Stump Merrill in 1991. Buck Showalter, Joe Torre and Joe Girardi were fired after their contracts expired. Boone has one year left and, if the Yankees fire him, it will be out of character for him. Steinbrenner is very budget conscious. Does he want to pay two managers in 2027?
My hunch – and I emphasize it’s just a hunch – is that Boone will return in 2027, but without a contract extension. He’ll play the year like a lame duck, and if the Yankees lose the same way in the playoffs again, that’ll be it. Boone simply has too much support from the right people in the organization (Cashman, Judge, Steinbrenner) for me to expect a manager change.
Brian Cashman
Contract status: Expiring contract
Managing Director since: 1998 (yes, really)
Warm seat: 🔥
Cashman’s seat is the opposite of hot. It’s freezing cold. Yes, his contract expires this offseason, but there is zero reason — I mean zero — to think Steinbrenner is ready to make a change at the top of the baseball operations department. Cashman is currently an honorary Steinbrenner. Steinbrenner trusts him implicitly and the two are very close. If Cashman wants to come back, he will come back.
Therein lies the question: Does Cashman want to come back for a 30th (!) season? It’s a stressful job, especially in the New York media market, and burnout could finally set in. We have no indication of this, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening behind the scenes. This isn’t a “Does Steinbrenner want Cashman back?” question. It’s a “Does Cashman want to come back?” question.
If there is a change at the top of the front office, it will most likely be because Cashman wants to move into a less demanding role. That could mean leaving the Yankees altogether. More likely, he would be elevated to, say, president of baseball operations, and someone else would take over the day-to-day work. That someone might even be handpicked by Cashman.
(Vice president of baseball operations Tim Naehring, Cashman’s longtime lieutenant, is the favorite to replace Cashman.)
Cashman succeeds by the metric Steinbrenner uses to define success. We don’t know what that metric is beyond “it’s not recent World Series titles, obviously.” Every year, the Yankees have a winning record and a roster good enough to win the World Series. This is not a team that is ages away from a championship, even if it sometimes feels like it.
Boone is much more likely to be replaced this offseason than Cashman, and even then I wouldn’t call it likely. Steinbrenner is loyal to his people, perhaps even to a fault, and the status quo has remained in place too long for me to think it will change. Boone will get a lame duck year in 2027 and Cashman’s return are the most likely outcomes. Any change would be a surprise.
Gn sports
