What we’re looking at: Florida, Florida, Florida.
- Most polls close at 7 p.m. ET, and the state counts quickly — ready to be released when the Panhandle finally calls it night an hour later.
At 8:01 p.m.refresh your browser and watch FL-14. The big mid-cycle redistricting wars transformed this Tampa-based district from Harris +8 to Trump +11.
- If Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor survives, Republicans could all but say goodbye to their majority, party strategists say.
- Next up is the FL-25. The nation’s costliest general election race is in a district that went from Harris +4 to Trump +9. If Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz’s race is close — or too close to call early in the night — House Republicans can remain hopeful.
While you’re at it, It’s a good time to check out the Senate race in South Carolina, where polls close at 7 p.m. and vote counting is relatively quick.
- If Sen. Darline Graham loses to Annie Andrews in the Trump +18 state, Senate Republicans will be able to say goodbye to their majority. (And they will sweat if it’s close.)
- “Underperformance is rarely isolated,” said Jason Thielman, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2024. “If you see the GOP underperforming initially in the East, that’s probably going to continue as you move west.”
At 9 p.m., check-in to Virginia: Polls across the Commonwealth close at 7 p.m., but historically close races are often not called until 9 p.m.
- If the Democrats flip VA-01, a Trump +5 seat, they will have a very good night.
- If they flip VA-05, a Trump +12 seat, they’ll have a great night.
Between the lines: VA-02 could tell us whether a strong Republican candidate can survive a Democratic wave and whether President Mike Johnson can keep his job.
- Trump won the Hampton Roads district by just 0.2 percentage points in 2024, while Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans won by 3.8 points. The AP did not announce his race until 5:28 p.m. ET the following Wednesday.
- GOP strategists believe Kiggans ran a nearly flawless campaign. Even if she is swept in a 50-50 district, other Republicans in single-digit Trump seats should brace themselves for the impact.
- If she holds up, it could bode well for Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Rep. Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate race.
The plot: Also keep an eye on Kentucky’s 6th District. Polls close at 6 p.m. ET, but the state is taking a more genteel approach to counting ballots. If the Democrats win the open seat in Lexington (Trump +15), the Republicans will down their bourbon. Neat.
Towards the west: Polls close in Ohio at 7:30 p.m. and in Texas at 8 p.m. ET, but Texas counts faster.
- If Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds his ground, Republicans still have a way to go to maintain their majority in the Senate.
- Iowa polls close at 9 p.m. ET. If Hinson does well, the night might not be as bad as many Republicans feared.
The bottom line: Don’t expect Senate results in Maine or Alaska.
- Even a clear win (or loss) for Collins might not be evident until Wednesday. In 2020, when it won by nearly 9 percentage points, the AP did not call the race until midday Wednesday.
- In Alaska, where voting is ranked choice, results could take weeks.
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