Sen. Tim Scott talks battle for Senate control as midterms heat up
Sen. Tim Scott joins anchor John Roberts to break down the battle for control of the Senate as the midterm elections approach. They analyze the latest power rankings, key races and major economic issues like cost of living. Scott discusses Republican strategies for winning a majority with nineteen days before voters go to the polls.
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Democrats have widened their once-narrow path to regaining the Senate majority with just over two weeks until Election Day, but they will need to win several competitive races to take control of the chamber.
If Democrats ride a massive blue wave in the midterm elections, they could end up with 52 or even 53 seats in the next Senate. But if Republicans perform better than the polls, they could maintain their majority, which currently stands at 53-47.
Here’s a look at the current battleground and the paths both parties are taking to achieve a Senate majority in the midterms.
The latest Power Rankings indicate that Democrats and Republicans will each win 47 seats in the midterms, leaving six races considered true toss-ups. Additionally, three races are classified as skinnier – one step away from the draw. These nine matchups will likely determine whether Democrats make a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate or whether the Republican Party holds the majority.
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Senate forecast from Fox News Power Rankings. (Remy Numa/Fox News)
“Nine races will determine control of the Senate, and based on the polls alone, you could call any of them toss-ups,” said Remy Numa, a Fox News contributor who runs the network’s Power Rankings.
The GOP is battling political history, as the ruling party in Washington has traditionally lost seats in midterm election years. Republicans also face a difficult political climate fueled by persistent inflation that Americans see at the grocery store, high gasoline prices linked to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and increasingly negative ratings of President Donald Trump.
While Republicans control seats in six of the Power Rankings’ nine competitive races, the GOP is playing more on defense than Democrats.
The six states in the running are Alaska, where Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election against Democratic challenger and former Rep. Mary Peltola; Iowa, where Rep. Ashley Hinson is trying to keep Sen. Joni Ernst’s GOP seat against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek; and Maine, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for reelection against former state Senate President Troy Jackson, the Democratic challenger.
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Senate forecast from Fox News Power Rankings. (Remy Numa/Fox News)
Also on the list is Ohio, where GOP Sen. Jon Husted is running to serve the final two years of the term won in 2022 by current Vice President JD Vance. He faces former longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. And in Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the race to succeed longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who was ousted by Paxton in a bitter Republican primary.
Democrats are playing defense in tie-six Michigan, where candidate Abdul El-Sayed is trying to maintain party control of incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ seat as he faces former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers.
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U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed speaks at the Michigan Democratic Party convention August 29, 2026 in Lansing, Michigan. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Democrats are also on defense in New Hampshire, where Rep. Chris Pappas aims to maintain retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s blue seat against former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu. The Power Rankings lists the race as “Lean Democrat.”
It’s a similar story in Minnesota, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is trying to keep Sen. Tina Smith’s seat in party hands.
But last week’s Power Rankings shifted the race in the blue-leaning state toward the GOP, from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic, as Republican candidate Michele Tafoya appears to be gaining ground.
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Meanwhile, the Republican Party is on the defensive in red-leaning Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces a tough re-election fight against his Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a pastor. The Power Rankings rates the Lean Republican race.
Numa, pointing to Kansas, Minnesota and New Hampshire, said those states’ “voter profiles and histories keep them at ‘Lean D’ and ‘Lean R’ on the forecast, but that map has expanded and, with the exception of the North Star State, mostly in red territory.”
Meanwhile, two states are now virtually out of the question for the GOP.
Georgia was a top Republican target early in the 2026 cycle, but Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holds a solid lead over Republican challenger Mike Collins in the Southeast battleground. Outside Republican groups have significantly reduced their spending in Georgia, and the Fox News Power rankings list the race as likely Democratic.
In neighboring North Carolina, Republicans appear to have conceded the seat held by incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Republican groups have halted spending on behalf of GOP candidate Mike Whatley, who is trailing former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee, in polls. The Fox News Power Rankings also rates this race as likely Democratic.
Democrats win a majority if they lead the table by holding Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, and flip North Carolina as well as at least three of the five GOP-controlled states.
“Senate Democrats are in the strongest position yet to win the majority — with multiple paths to flip GOP-held seats and growing momentum across the map,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, touted in a recent statement.
Conversely, Republicans would maintain control of the House by holding at least three toss-ups where they play defense. A 50-50 Senate would remain in GOP hands, thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote.
Vice President JD Vance speaks during a campaign rally at Tyler Pounds Regional Airport October 13, 2026, in Tyler, Texas. Vance is campaigning across the country for Republican candidates in the November midterms. (Saul Loeb-Pool/Getty Images)
Gillibrand’s counterpart, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, remains optimistic.
“I think it’s going really well for us,” Scott said Thursday in an interview on Fox News’ “America Reports.” “Frankly, the momentum is with us, not against us.”
The Republican majority could be strengthened if the party goes on the offensive. While the chances of Sununu flipping New Hampshire appear to be fading, Republicans are optimistic that Rogers can outperform El-Sayed in Michigan. Trump is expected to hold a rally with Rogers on the Great Lakes battlefield later this month.
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Meanwhile, Scott has his eyes set on a turnaround in Minnesota.
“Michele Tafoya is running a very independent, very successful campaign,” he told Fox News. “I think we’re closing that gap. And if there’s a surprise in October, Minnesota will go Republican.”
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