Election in Israel: five key things to know | Israel Elections 2026 News

Israelis will go to the polls on Tuesday for parliamentary elections.

The vote, the first since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent genocidal war against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, is considered one of the most important in its history.

It will determine the direction of the Israeli government as the country remains mired in years-long conflicts, faces growing international criticism and grapples with growing polarization inside the country.

Here are five things to know about the upcoming elections:

Who are the main parties and what do opinion polls suggest?

Any party above the electoral threshold of 3.25 percent enters Parliament, whose mandate lasts four years.

Two main blocs are competing for the head of the next government.

The first is the pro-Netanyahu coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and joined by several far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. These include United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas – both conservative religious parties – as well as Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led by far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, respectively.

The main opposition coalition includes four Jewish-led opposition movements – the Yashar party, led by former Israeli military leader Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats, led by former deputy army chief of staff Yair Golan, the Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by former Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman, and the Together alliance, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and joined by the head of opposition in the Knesset, Yair Lapid.

The latest opinion polls released before the ban on new polls came into force on Friday showed that neither bloc was on course to secure a parliamentary majority of 61 seats.

A poll by public broadcaster KAN predicted the opposition alliance would win 52 of the 120 Knesset seats, compared to 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc, with the remaining seats going to unaffiliated parties, including the country’s two main Arab-majority political lists – Raam, also called the Joint List, and the Joint List, an alliance of the Hadash, Balad and Taal parties.

However, both the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs have effectively ruled out associating with Arab-led parties for now.

The fractured landscape means Israeli parties could find themselves in difficult post-election negotiations to assemble a governing majority. If these efforts fail, Israel could end up with a minority government dependent on support from parties outside the governing coalition – or potentially heading into another round of elections.

What are the key issues?

Israelis are grappling with a series of domestic and international crises this election cycle.

Domestically, there is growing demand for accountability for security failures, including those leading to the October 2023 attacks, anger over the growing military exemption of the ultra-Orthodox community and concern over Netanyahu’s repeated efforts to promote judicial reforms that critics say undermine Israel’s liberal democratic order.

“Secular and liberal opposition factions in Israel believe this election is the last chance to save Israeli democracy and restore institutions that have eroded during Netanyahu’s successive terms,” Mairav ​​​​Zonszein, an Israeli-American commentator and senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

A war-weary population also questions how Israel should proceed in its multiple military conflicts, with many voters seeking security and economic stability while remaining resistant to perceived concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.

What makes this election so important?

These are Israel’s first elections since the October 2023 attacks, and they come amid rising far-right attitudes and growing divisions over the country’s direction.

“Tensions in Israeli society have always been focused on violence and right-wing rhetoric, but the trends that have always been present have accelerated under the current government,” prominent Israeli sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani told Al Jazeera.

The election also comes as Israel’s international standing has deteriorated, with a host of Israel’s allies sanctioning its illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, and many other countries denouncing the country’s continued attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.

When Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys from around the world came out, some jeering and booing.

The outcome of the upcoming vote could determine whether the next Israeli government maintains its approach to the international community or seeks to repair ties.

What does this mean for Netanyahu’s political future?

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister who has led the country for more than 15 of the past 17 years, a total of 19 years, faces growing scrutiny at home and abroad over alleged security failures leading to the Oct. 7 attack, as well as corruption charges he has been fighting since 2019.

An election defeat would also expose Netanyahu to his ongoing corruption trial, which could ultimately result in prison time if he is convicted.

A new government could also affect prospects for a possible commission of inquiry into the October 2023 attacks and Netanyahu’s political standing as he faces an arrest warrant for war crimes from the International Criminal Court.

What about Palestinian citizens of Israel?

About 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote in Tuesday’s elections, including Palestinian citizens of Israel, who number about 1.2 million.

Meanwhile, around three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem have no say in the government that controls their borders, movement and legal status.

A recent poll suggests that turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel could reach 60 percent, with the majority of votes expected for Arab lists, which are the main representatives of Palestinian citizens of Israel. If turnout reaches 65 percent, these parties could potentially win up to 15 Knesset seats. Campaigners are aiming for a turnout of 70 percent, which would be the highest in decades and would raise the threshold, preventing smaller parties from gaining access to parliament.

Last month, Israel’s Central Election Commission voted to exclude the Joint List and Ra’am from the elections.

Israel’s highest court quickly overturned the decision, allowing Arab parties to remain in the race. However, the court forced Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh to withdraw from the race because of an article in which he called the October 7 attacks “an important historical event.”

The role of Arab parties will be important. The two major coalitions have so far ruled out joining forces with them, but without them, neither coalition would be able to form a majority.

Netanyahu has repeatedly sought to portray his opponents as potential partners with Arab parties, saying an opposition-led government would seek their support and that only his Likud party could prevent it.

Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Israeli MP Ayman Odeh, said the political alienation of Arab parties was part of Netanyahu’s political strategy, which could allow him to remain in power as interim prime minister if neither coalition forms a majority.

“If support for Palestinian-led parties becomes politically toxic and the opposition fails to win 61 seats, the impasse itself becomes Netanyahu’s final victory,” Mansour wrote for the Arab Center Washington DC.