College Football Winners and Losers: How We Think the Initial College Football Playoff Rankings Will Look After Week 9

It’s time to start seriously discussing the College Football Playoff.

The arrival of November means the College Football Playoff selection committee rankings are here. Tuesday night we’ll have the first set of CFP rankings and a first chance to see what the committee thinks.

This way of thinking will apparently change from week to week. Consistency can be hard to find. But given our years of observing how the CFP has rated teams in the four- and now 12-team playoff formats, here’s our best guess at how the rankings will look on November 3.

Best Group of Six team: Boise State (6-1)

With James Madison’s two-game losing streak and a slew of teams in the Conference USA, the Broncos appear poised for their second CFP berth in three years. Boise’s biggest challenger right now looks like Oregon State. But November could bring a surprise or two.

12. Ole Miss (6-2)

Ole Miss fans shouldn’t worry about where the team stands in the standings as of Tuesday night. Next week’s game against Georgia will quickly render him useless. The Rebels are in the playoffs with a 4-0 record and could even sneak up to 9-3 overall if things go well.

11.Texas (6-2)

The Longhorns are ahead of Ole Miss thanks to that head-to-head win, and that win against Ohio State still carries weight. The games at Missouri and LSU over the next two weeks will be huge for the Longhorns’ hopes. They could afford just one defeat over the rest of the season. But this is a team that was 9-3 and missed the College Football Playoff a year ago.

10. Kentucky (7-1)

The Kentucky resume is a great litmus test. There is no doubt that the Wildcats have been one of the best teams in the SEC this season. But how do you view Kentucky’s schedule? The wins over Oklahoma and Texas A&M aren’t as impressive as they once seemed and the Alabama loss was a blowout. But like Ole Miss fans, Kentucky fans shouldn’t get upset about where the Wildcats are Tuesday night. Games against Tennessee, Florida and Missouri will settle things during the month of November.

9. Ohio State (7-2)

Are the Buckeyes real title contenders at this point? We’re not so sure. It was always going to be a tough task with a freshman quarterback making his first career start at USC, but Ohio State’s defense gave up nearly 7 yards per play to a USC team that had minus-17 rushing yards a week ago. Can this version of Ohio State go 4-0 in November against Northwestern, Oregon, Nebraska and Michigan?

8.Alabama (6-2)

We think the Tide will be ahead of Kentucky because of this head-to-head win and it helps that both of the Tide’s losses were to two teams in the top 20 of the AP poll. It wouldn’t be a shock if Alabama was behind the Wildcats and in 10th place on Tuesday night, but a win against LSU in Week 10 would go a long way in showing just how good this team is.

7. UCLA (8-0)

Two things could be true at the same time: The turnaround Bob Chesney is making at UCLA is probably the best coaching job in the country. And it’s also difficult to take this team seriously as a national title contender, especially with quarterback Nico Iamaleava out for the rest of the season. UCLA’s best wins are against Wisconsin and Oregon. Both are struggling and the Ducks turned the ball over seven times in the Bruins’ two-point victory. We believe the committee will significantly harm the strength of UCLA’s schedule, given how it has previously evaluated top-tier teams.

6. Notre Dame (7-1)

The face-to-face principle applies here. Difficult to put Notre Dame ahead of BYU since the Cougars beat the Irish even if Notre Dame should have received one last shot in the end zone. The Irish dominated Navy in the second half on Saturday and will be much closer to No. 1 with a victory over Miami in Week 10.

5. BYU (7-1)

The Cougars did what they needed to do in a win over Arizona State on Saturday before a massive game against Utah. Can you say that week 10 is going to be really, really good? BYU, however, risks missing the Big 12 title game with a loss to the Utes. Texas Tech hides with a manageable schedule. The Red Raiders aren’t as good as they were a season ago, but avoid both BYU and Utah in Big 12 play.

4. Indiana (8-1)

The Hoosiers’ offense has been struggling lately. Indiana hasn’t scored more than 20 points in each of its last four games and Curt Cignetti changed quarterbacks at halftime of its overtime win over Minnesota after Josh Hoover took a big hit late in the first half. Hoover doesn’t look 100% as he appeared to be injured in the second half against Ohio State. How will the committee take this into account? This is still a team with an elite defense, even if the special teams looks very shaky.

3. Utah (8-0)

Utah appears to be a more complete team than Indiana at this point, and we think going undefeated puts the Utes ahead of the Hoosiers. Saturday’s trip to Cincinnati looked like a trap after a big victory against Houston and the imminence of the holy war. Instead, Utah made easy work of the Bearcats in a 49-25 victory.

2. Georgia (7-1)

The Bulldogs ended their rivalry game with Florida before halftime. The Gators were overwhelmed by Georgia in the first half as it was clear that the Bulldogs are the best team in the SEC despite that incident against Auburn two weeks ago. If Georgia had beaten Auburn, we think the Bulldogs would be #1 on Tuesday night.

1.Miami (8-0)

The Hurricanes have two of the top three Heisman favorites in the country, QB Darian Mensah and WR Malachi Toney, and an offense that appears to be the best in the country. The Hurricanes had a scare at North Carolina on Saturday, but Mensah threw for 274 yards and three scores while Toney caught two and Mark Fletcher rushed for two more. Who else can’t wait for next Saturday night and the Hurricanes’ trip to Notre Dame?

Here are the rest of this week’s winners and losers.

Winners

Sacramento State: The Hornets picked up their first win over an FBS team as an FBS team in a 31-10 victory over Kent State on Friday night. Sac State made the jump to the highest level of college football during the offseason and joined the MAC. The conference affiliation has led to extensive cross-country travel, both for the Hornets and their Midwestern opponents. Friday night, Isaiah Ene had 107 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries as Sacramento State’s defense forced five turnovers.

Oregon: Given the way the 2026 season has gone, you could understand if Oregon folded after No. 20 Northwestern took a 20-6 lead with less than two minutes left in the first half. Instead, the Ducks outscored the Wildcats 21-6 in the second half, en route to a 34-26 victory. Dylan Raiola had his best game of the season as he completed 22 of 31 passes for 336 yards and three touchdowns, and RB Brandon Smith rushed eight times for 82 yards and a score.

Clemson: The Tigers traveled to Tallahassee and put Florida State in its feelings even more with a 36-24 victory. Tait Reynolds threw two touchdown passes and ran for another as he had the best game of his young career. Entering Saturday night, Reynolds had thrown just one touchdown all season. Clemson’s defense held FSU to 65 rushing yards and forced four turnovers thanks to three Ashton Daniels interceptions.

Utah: The No. 6 Utes made sure Cincinnati wasn’t going to take down an undefeated team for the second week in a row. Utah scored 42 points in the first half during a 49-25 demolition of the Bearcats. Devon Dampier threw three touchdowns and Utah totaled 268 yards on just 42 carries. The Utes scored touchdowns on each of their four first-half offensive possessions, Rabbit Evans returned a fumble for 51 yards and a touchdown, and Elijah Davis had a 39-yard pick-6 before even halftime of the game.

Losers

James Madison: The Dukes have now lost two straight games in overtime after a 7-0 start. James Madison lost 24-21 at home to Troy on Thursday night thanks to five turnovers and a costly decision not to score a field goal in overtime.

Justin Powe intercepted JMU QBs Camden Coleman and JC Evans three times, and receivers Michael Scott and Jeremiah Harrison each fumbled. JMU still had a chance to win the game in regulation, but its drive late in the fourth quarter ended at the Troy 37-yard line.

In overtime, Billy Napier chose to go for it on fourth-and-1 at the Troy 5-yard line, but Seth Cromwell got stuffed. From there, Troy only needed one basket for the victory.

Nebraska: The Huskers have now lost three straight games following a 17-10 home loss to Washington. Is it a coincidence that the three-game losing streak against Indiana, Oregon and now Washington comes after the first five wins of the season against Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, Michigan State and Maryland? We’ll let you decide on that one. The Huskers will travel to Illinois on Friday night and then to Rutgers before games against Ohio State and Iowa. An 8-4 season is still on the table.

Oklahoma: The Sooners can’t string together two wins. OU has now alternated wins and losses through its first eight games of the season after a 42-25 loss at home to a resurgent South Carolina team. Oklahoma’s defense was one of the best in the country and threw three interceptions. Yet South Carolina had over 500 total offensive yards as LaNorris Sellers threw for 301 yards on just 24 pass attempts, while John Mateer had just 244 on 43 throws.

Sam Houston: The Bearkats are looking for a new head coach after a 24-3 loss to Missouri State on Tuesday. The loss dropped Sam Houston to 1-7 overall and 0-4 in Conference USA. And on Wednesday, Phil Longo was fired. Longo has won just three games since he was hired before the 2025 season to replace KC Keeler. Eric Raisbeck and Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay will serve as interim co-head coaches for the remainder of the season as Sam Houston learns that going from FCS powerhouse to a competitive Group of Six team is quite a daunting task.

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