Abridged Expert Summary: Drop This One, Republicans

New York Times:

‘He Makes No Sense’: How Trump Alienated GOP Voters
Signs are emerging that discouraged Republican voters may stay home in November, leading to a Democratic surge without many conversions.

If Democrats make big gains in the midterm elections in four weeks, it may not just be because their most loyal voters are turning out in force, or because their candidates have converted Republican voters to their cause.

Instead, Democrats’ dream blue wave could come from Republicans lashing out at President Trump and staying home. It already has a name: the red surf.

Across the country, signs are emerging of an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, even among those who feel likely to vote. A portion of rural southwest Michigan — long a Republican stronghold — illustrates this point, with more signs for blueberries and eggs than for political candidates. Volunteers don’t come knocking on the door. And many voters say they don’t know this election.

The red current was popularized by Charlie Cook, who is right.

Reuters:

Trump voters not enthusiastic about voting in midterms, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

Summary

• 48% of Harris voters in 2024 are very enthusiastic about voting, compared to 30% of Trump voters
• Harris supporters were more likely to say they are almost certain to vote, 76% to 63%.
• Men support Democrats over Republicans between 43% and 39% in hypothetical congressional races

POLICY :

The young men who led Trump to victory are crazy. Vance tries to win them back.
Convincing young men to run for Republican office in November won’t be easy, and even the administration’s allies are skeptical. Vice President JD Vance can stop the bleeding.

Of all the voters the Republican Party needs to attract to the polls in November, young men are among the most crucial.

They leaned heavily toward President Donald Trump in 2024, but like other parts of the presidential coalition, some have since become frustrated with the war and the cost of living.

But the Trump administration and its allies also view them as among the most compelling — a group whose political and cultural instincts remain largely aligned with MAGA.

Enter JD Vance…

Convincing this cohort won’t be easy, and even administration allies are skeptical of Vance’s ability to stop the bleeding. They fear that young men will be a lost cause in 2026 – their anger over the war in Iran reflecting a general frustration that the country has long focused too much on foreign policy and not enough on improving their domestic lives.

Washington Post:

GOP likely to suffer major legislative losses in state, post analysis shows
Democrats have a rare chance to strengthen their presence in the state after years of Republican gains.

National attention in this year’s midterm elections is focused primarily on the congressional and gubernatorial elections.

But Democrats are also making a big push to capture power in state legislatures across the country, forcing Republicans to play defense in a field they have dominated in recent years.

Democrats are offended. They could break total Republican control in up to six states and gain unified control in up to seven of their own, according to a Washington Post analysis.

Republicans are hot on their heels, with the possibility of disrupting total Democratic control in just two states and taking full control in up to five states.

The rampart:

The great weakness of the Democrats in the midterms no longer seems so serious
Record harvests ease party’s financial crisis, even as fundraisers warn against declaring victory.

As they watched their midterm standings deteriorate in recent months, Republicans assuaged their anxiety by emphasizing the enormous financial advantage they enjoyed over Democrats.

This may be changing.

Various Democratic operatives and fundraisers have told me that the party’s financial situation has improved significantly in recent weeks as Democrats’ chances of winning have improved. The House Majority PAC, the largest Democratic super PAC tasked with winning back the lower house, and its affiliated organizations raised $230 million in the third quarter of 2026, their best quarter ever. Senate Majority PAC and its affiliated organizations announced they also had their best third quarter ever, raising $202 million.

Campaign managers working on some of this cycle’s most competitive Senate races told me that their candidates are on track to set new fundraising records in the third quarter (we’ll have a clearer picture of those numbers next week: FEC reports are due Oct. 15). Other leaders of Democratic-aligned groups told me they’ve already raised record amounts. One such group, 314 Action, a political action committee that supports candidates with science backgrounds, raised $25 million this cycle.

POLICY :

Democrats spy opening in red state. There may not be enough money for this.
As the Senate map expands toward deep red states, Democrats worry their money won’t reach far enough to make some of them legitimate battlegrounds.

Democrats’ eyes may be bigger than their wallets.

Democrats in a number of red states are clamoring for more money to fight for Senate seats that suddenly seem within their reach, with polls showing them competitive in a normally impregnable swath of territory, from Kansas to Florida and South Carolina to Mississippi, prompting a sudden surge in spending from outside groups. The party’s main campaign groups have already started spending in Texas, another state they once downplayed and which is coming into serious play.

Maybe in change elections, it’s not about money. it’s about the quality of the candidates (see South Carolina, Kansas and Texas and…)

Jonathan Tamari/Bloomberg:

Why Pennsylvania will serve as a bellwether for early elections
The nation’s biggest swing state could reveal a lot about the midterm elections.

President Donald Trump is down sharply in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll, while Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is up ahead of an almost certain run for the White House in 2028.

Their trajectories could have repercussions far beyond their own political fortunes. Pennsylvania is hosting four crucial House elections this year – enough to give Democrats a majority – and Trump’s struggles (combined with Shapiro’s re-election) make it even harder for Republicans to vote.

“The path to flipping the four competitive seats in Pennsylvania is getting stronger by the day,” said Eli Cousin, spokesperson for the Democratic House campaign arm.

Here’s your lightning round:

This reminds me:

Let’s cut to the chase: The financial challenges Daily Kos is facing this year are difficult.

We continue to be paywall-free. We continue to be supported by our readers, not billionaires or corporations. But we need to generate more revenue. We are relying on our community more than ever to help us make ends meet.