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Texas hasn’t gone blue in a statewide race in more than 30 years, but that streak could be put to the test this year. A new Fox News poll finds that while Texas voters likely favor maintaining Republican control of the U.S. Senate and giving incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott an edge in his re-election bid, the Senate race remains deadlocked.
The survey, released Wednesday, finds that Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are tied at 49 percent each among likely Texas voters in the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to President Trump-backed Paxton.
Last month, Talarico rose 2 points among likely voters (51%-49%). The move to a tie reflects Paxton’s consolidation of support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who supported Cornyn in the primary.
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Although Paxton falls short of Trump’s 2024 margins, he has slightly strengthened his support among men (+1) and women (+1) since September, while Talarico has slightly lost support (-1 and -2, respectively).
Talarico leads among black voters (+65 points), urban voters (+29), those under 30 (+28) and women with a college degree (+23). Paxton’s strongest groups include white evangelical Christians (+52), white men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21), and those 65 and older (+18).
The survey reveals that Hispanic voters are returning to the Democrats. After supporting former President Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020, they favored Trump by 1 point in 2024, according to Texas Fox News voter analysis. This key voting bloc now favors Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) and prefers Democratic control of the U.S. Senate by 29 points.
Overall, regarding control of the Senate, Texans choose the Republicans by 4 points (51% against 47%), compared to +1 point in September.
Talarico’s greater loyalty to the party is another reason the race is close: 98% of Democrats support him, compared to 90% of Republicans supporting Paxton. Nearly 3 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans cross party lines to support Talarico.
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Democrats also maintain a margin of enthusiasm: 69% are extremely interested in this year’s elections, compared to 61% of Republicans. Extremely interested voters support Talarico by 7 points.
“The race is going to come down to two fundamental questions,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who is participating in the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Are disgruntled Republicans showing up, and if so, are they gritting their teeth and voting for a candidate about whom they have serious reservations?”
Opinions on Talarico are net positive, albeit by only 1 point (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Paxton’s ratings are underwater at 17 (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Among “double haters,” voters who view both candidates negatively, Paxton leads by 50 points.
Voters express similar levels of concern about both candidates: 53% worry that Talarico’s positions are too liberal, while 50% worry that Paxton is too close to Trump. The intensity of these concerns is almost identical, with 36% extremely concerned about Talarico and 37% about Paxton.
In 2024, Trump won the Lone Star State by nearly 14 points, but his job rating is currently underperforming by 9 points (45% approve, 54% disapprove). Still, Paxton enjoys the support of 13% of voters who disapprove of Trump, while 6% of Trump supporters support Talarico.
When it comes to their personal finances, more than twice as many voters say their situation is worse (43%) than better (20%) compared to two years ago; 36% say they are about the same.
Worse-off voters back Talarico by 45 points, while those better off (+49) or about the same (+26) favor Paxton.
The race for governor gives more breathing space to the Republicans: Abbott is ahead of his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, by 5 points (52% to 47%), unchanged since September.
Abbott has a positive assessment of his job (50% approve, 48% disapprove) and almost all of those who approve support him in the race, as do 9% of those who disapprove.
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Abbott also benefits from slightly stronger party loyalty and greater ticket splitting among Talarico supporters: 7% support Abbott, compared to 2% of Paxton supporters who support Hinojosa.
Conducted October 15-19, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews with a sample of 2,011 registered voters in Texas, randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (205) and cell phones (1,303) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (503). Results based on the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points, and for the subsample of 1,398 likely voters it is ±2.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, the wording and order of questions can influence the results. Sources for developing target weights include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are typically applied to the age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely Voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that draws on past voting history, interest in the current election, intent to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
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