US intelligence agencies have warned that Iran is in the “advanced stages” of plans to target US personnel abroad, prompting Washington to place its personnel on high alert in the Middle East, according to US officials and an official memo cited by Axios and the New York Times (NYT).
The alert comes as the United States and Israel signal they may be preparing for a new military campaign against Iran, which Tehran has reportedly threatened to retaliate against, in part by targeting communications cables in the Gulf.
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The heightened threat assessment prompted Washington, already on guard over escalating attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis, to scale back Washington’s diplomatic presence in the Middle East, the New York Times reported, citing officials.
Here’s what we know about the latest US warning and how it fits into the broader US-Iran conflict:
What has the United States said about Iran’s alleged plans to attack Americans?
A warning about Iranian plans to target US citizens was detailed in a memo sent by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, first reported by US news site Axios.
In the memo, Clayton writes that U.S. agencies have received intelligence indicating that Iran has “significantly increased its efforts to target U.S. personnel” abroad, with deadly plots reaching “advanced stages” in the Middle East and other countries.
The New York Times, which also reported on the memo, cited unnamed U.S. officials saying that threats against U.S. officials, including ambassadors, had been assessed in recent weeks and that Iran had identified potential targets in Europe.
Officials said some intelligence indicates Iranian agents are already active in the United States.
What evidence has Washington presented and what remains unverified?
Washington has not publicly commented on the memo, although The New York Times cited a US official confirming its authenticity on behalf of President Donald Trump’s administration.
Another official cited by The New York Times downplayed Iran’s ability to carry out attacks in the United States and elsewhere, saying it did not have the capacity to realize all of its ambitions.
Why have US officials sounded the alarm now?
According to officials cited by the New York Times, US agencies consider Iranian threats against US citizens in the Middle East to be “at the highest level” since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran in February.
This assessment is behind recent steps taken by the United States to withdraw personnel stationed in the region, the New York Times added.
In the background, there are reports that the United States and Israel are considering launching a new military campaign against Iran after next month’s US midterm elections. On Friday, Trump said the United States “could commit another little epic fury,” using the code name for the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran that began on February 28.
From which countries has the United States withdrawn its diplomats?
On Wednesday, the US State Department announced it was removing non-essential staff from its embassy in Saudi Arabia, citing escalating attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen on Saudi infrastructure.
Staffing levels have also been quietly reduced at other US diplomatic missions in the region, several US media reported. This includes embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Lebanon, according to CNN.
A U.S. official cited by the New York Times said the threat of Houthi attacks and “Iranian terrorist plots targeting U.S. officials” were behind U.S. personnel decisions.
Has Iran responded?
Iran has not responded to news of the US intelligence memo accusing it of planning attacks against US personnel.
However, Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened and carried out attacks on U.S. and allied bases in the region. The Pentagon has confirmed that 21 US service members have been killed in the Middle East since the start of the war against Iran.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned on Wednesday that Tehran would follow a new “offensive” strategy if the United States renewed its attacks.
This means Tehran will no longer limit its military operations to retaliatory strikes, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said, adding that the quality, range and power of Iran’s missiles had improved.
Tehran also has extensive plans to target underwater communications cables in the Gulf in the event of further US-Israeli attacks, Reuters news agency reported, citing two senior Iranian security officials.
Earlier, Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, warned that cables, data centers and artificial intelligence facilities in the region could be attacked if war with the United States breaks out again.
Has Iran ever been accused of planning attacks against Americans?
Yes, U.S. officials have long accused Iran of plots targeting U.S. citizens, including assassination attempts against Trump on U.S. soil.
In March this year, a Pakistani national was convicted by a US court of plotting to assassinate Trump and other US politicians on the orders of Iran’s IRGC.
An Iranian member of the IRGC was charged in 2022 with attempting to assassinate former US national security adviser John Bolton. The individual allegedly “attempted to pay $300,000 to individuals in the United States to commit the murder in Washington DC or Maryland,” according to the US Department of Justice.
Last year, the U.S. intelligence community warned that Iran would “continue to directly threaten Americans around the world,” specifically targeting officials they suspected of involvement in the 2020 assassination of IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.
This month, the United States abruptly withdrew its bombers from an air base in England, United Kingdom, citing concerns about a potential attack. This followed a security incident at the base, following which the UK arrested several men suspected of working with Iranian intelligence services.
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