- That includes incumbents like Reps. John McGuire (R-Va.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), neither of whom were considered vaguely vulnerable at the start of Trump’s second term.
- Most of these seats haven’t elected a Democrat in years, if not decades, and are only truly in play if the party achieves a double-digit national victory. Even then, some are overblown.
- But Trump country candidates say frustration with rising prices, corruption, the war in Iran and political power in general has led to a sea change that could precipitate shocking results on November 3.
State of play: Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Michigan) is running scathing attack ads against Democratic opponent Callie Barr, calling her “crooked Callie” and linking her to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Abdul El-Sayed.
- That’s a stark change from 2024, when Bergman beat Barr by 21 percentage points. Its ads this cycle made at most a passing reference to Barr, according to AdImpact.
- Rep. John McGuire (R-Va.) won by 15 points in 2024, a sleepy general election with minimal spending or advertising. He, too, is running offensive ads amid a challenge from former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello.
What we hear: Democrats say they are stunned by the level of anti-establishment frustration in their districts. “We’re in a real race. It’s unreal,” Barr said in an interview, telling Axios voters regularly come to his campaign offices “just to express their frustration” with the outgoing president.
- “I ran in 24 and I can see, in real time, the change,” she said. “I mean, look at the commercial that Jack Bergman ran on me. There’s a trail behind it that whispers ‘lies’.”
- Richard Ojeda, who is running against National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), told Axios that his district is “ripe for selection” because voters are “absolutely tired, they’re done with it, they know they deserve better.”
- “People here are equally disgusted with everyone involved in politics…There is a huge appetite for change,” said Don Coover, the Democrat challenging Rep. Derek Schmidt (R-Kan.).
Zoom: Perriello, asked to compare the 2026 election cycle with the 2008 Democratic wave in which he was elected to his first term in Congress, said Republican presidential candidate John McCain “was a very serious, credible Republican.”
- Barack Obama, then the Democratic presidential candidate, “led a wave that turned Virginia blue, but it’s not like the bottom was falling out on the Republican side,” he told Axios.
- “This election has let the Republican side down,” he said.
What they say: “House Republicans are falling so fast to the bottom as they scramble to shore up deep red districts that MAGA clowns posing as operatives have mocked us for targeting them more than a year ago,” said Viet Shelton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
- Shelton added, “Who’s laughing now?”
- CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for the House Majority PAC – the main super PAC for House Democrats – told Axios: “Going into the cycle, our strategy was to recruit exceptional candidates to run in races deep in Trump territory – and it’s paying off. »
- Warnke highlighted Democratic efforts in Texas’ newly redrawn 15th District, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024, and North Carolina’s 11th District, which he noted has not been won by a Democrat since 2006.
Yes, but: Although the DCCC has added many of these races to its ambitious list of “districts in play,” neither it nor House Majority PAC have committed any money.
- In some cases, small outside spenders are filling the void: The progressive group Science Victory Fund plans to spend $200,000 on advertising and phone banking in 15 heavily Republican districts, a spokesperson told Axios.
- That includes going after Reps. French Hill (R-Ark.), Abe Hamadeh (R-Ariz.) and Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), as well as opening up Republican seats in Kentucky, Nevada and South Carolina that Trump won by double digits.
- In other elections, it is the candidates who do the heavy lifting: Eileen Laubacher, the Democrat running against Boebert, has raised more than $10 million as of June 30, compared to $1 million for the Republican incumbent.
The other side: “Democrats do an awful lot of celebrating before a single vote is counted, confusing a list of ridiculous goals with an election result. … We have the strongest candidates and winning messages,” NRC spokesperson Mike Marinella told Axios in a statement.
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